Issue 12
W/C 13 October 2026
Growth is holding up. The support beneath it is becoming more concentrated. AI debt, ASML's record quarter, Nvidia's narrowing lead in China, resilient US consumers, the UK inheritance-tax debate and Getty Images' restructuring all ask what growth is really built on.
Opening Perspective: What Is Growth Built On
The global economy is still growing, but the foundations supporting that growth are becoming easier to see.
The IMF expects global growth of 3.1% this year and 3.4% in 2027, with investment linked to artificial intelligence helping to offset pressure from higher energy prices.
Europe provides some of the clearest evidence. ASML has reported record quarterly sales, while customers are already discussing equipment requirements for 2029 and 2030. In China, however, Nvidia's shrinking market lead shows how regulation and domestic competition can redirect that investment.
The picture is more constrained in the UK. The government must decide how to fund social care and other commitments without weakening fiscal credibility. Headlines about a possible universal estate levy have moved faster than policy, while a separate change bringing most unused pensions into inheritance tax from April 2027 is already confirmed.
US bank results suggest consumers are still spending and generally meeting repayments. Getty Images shows the other side of the picture: when technology changes faster than a leveraged balance sheet can accommodate, the financing may need to be rebuilt.
The question for investors is what supports the growth they are underwriting. Capacity, financing, regulation and the durability of demand can matter as much as the headline rate.
01
The IMF Says Growth Is Holding Up as AI Debt Builds
The IMF's latest outlook projects global growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. It says the AI investment boom is supporting activity and trade, although the benefit is uneven across countries.
That investment is increasingly visible in credit markets. Goldman Sachs estimates that nearly $500bn of AI-related debt has been issued in 2026. Hyperscalers account for about 40% of the total, with data centres, chips and related infrastructure making up the rest.
Why it matters
The figures link a growth story with a financing question. Large technology companies have strong balance sheets, but the infrastructure around them also needs project finance, private credit, high-yield debt and equity. As issuance rises, investors must decide how much exposure they want to one theme and what price compensates them for the risk.
The debt does not by itself determine government-bond yields. It does, however, compete for investor capital at a time when public borrowing remains high and inflation is still affecting rate expectations.
The evidence
2025 hyperscaler debt issuance: $108bn.
2026 hyperscaler issuance to date: $194bn.
2026 AI-related debt across the wider ecosystem: nearly $500bn.
AI-related issuers' share of 15-year-plus US investment-grade issuance: 40%.
The Jura view
AI investment can support growth without making every part of the capital structure equally attractive. Equity investors can share in upside if demand exceeds expectations. Credit investors mainly receive the agreed return, so concentration, duration and the quality of the underlying asset matter more.
For private-market investors, the opportunity is likely to spread beyond the largest technology names into power, cooling, connectivity and specialised data-centre finance. The strongest structures will match long-lived infrastructure with reliable partners and enough contractual protection if utilisation takes longer to build.
Chart
AI investment moves into the debt market
The scale and make-up of AI-related borrowing. Hyperscalers are only part of the total.
2026 AI-related debt, nearly $500bn
Hyperscaler issuance, 2025
$108bn
Hyperscaler issuance, 2026 to date
$194bn
40% of 15-year-plus US investment-grade issuance
Share from AI-related issuers. All figures are Goldman Sachs estimates covering the wider AI buildout.
Goldman Sachs Exchanges. Estimates covering debt associated with the wider AI buildout.
02
Why the Death Tax Debate Matters Before a Policy Exists
The phrase 'death tax' has returned to political debate after Andy Burnham renewed his case for a national care service. His earlier proposals included funding options linked to estates, but he has said he is not simply returning to the 2010 proposal. No universal estate levy has been announced.
That speculation is separate from a confirmed policy change. From 6 April 2027, most unused pension funds and pension death benefits will be included in estates for inheritance-tax purposes. HMRC estimates that 10,500 estates will become liable where they would not have been before, while about 38,500 will pay more. The average increase among affected estates is estimated at around £34,000.
Why it matters
Under the current system, inheritance tax is usually charged at 40% on the part of an estate above the available allowances. The standard nil-rate band is £325,000 and the residence nil-rate band can add £175,000 for qualifying estates. A qualifying married couple or civil partners may be able to pass on up to £1m without inheritance tax.
For investors, the immediate issue is liquidity and structure. Estates containing property, private-company interests or other illiquid assets may need enough cash to meet a liability without forcing a sale at the wrong time. Bringing pensions into the calculation also changes the balance between pension and non-pension assets in estate planning.
The evidence
Standard rate above allowances: 40%.
Nil-rate band: £325,000, plus up to £175,000 residence nil-rate band.
Newly liable estates from April 2027: 10,500.
Estates paying more: about 38,500, by around £34,000 on average.
The Jura view
Policy rumours are a poor basis for irreversible decisions. Selling assets, transferring ownership or changing pension withdrawals before the rules are known can create tax costs, transaction costs and lost market exposure.
The practical response is scenario planning. Distinguish existing inheritance-tax rules, the confirmed 2027 pension change and any future social-care funding proposal. Material decisions should follow published legislation and regulated tax, legal and financial advice.
Chart
Current rules, confirmed change and political speculation
Separating enacted policy from debate, so it is clear what is actually changing.
Current rules
40%
Standard rate above available allowances
£325,000
Nil-rate band
Up to £175,000
Residence nil-rate band for qualifying estates
Confirmed from 6 April 2027
Most unused pension funds and death benefits enter the estate for inheritance tax.
10,500
Estates newly liable
38,500
Estates paying more
~£34,000
Average increase among affected estates
Political speculation
Not announced policy
No universal estate levy has been announced. Debate on social-care funding continues.
HMRC policy paper; GOV.UK inheritance tax guidance. Not tax advice.
03
ASML's Record Quarter Shows Where Europe Still Has Leverage
ASML reported €11.7bn of third-quarter sales and €5.0bn of net income. Its gross margin reached 57.5%, and it sold 113 new lithography systems, compared with 86 in the previous quarter.
The company expects fourth-quarter sales of €14.2bn to €15.2bn and full-year sales of €44bn to €45bn. Customers are discussing orders for 2029 and 2030, and ASML says its currently planned supply for 2027 and 2028 may not meet demand.
Why it matters
ASML occupies a scarce point in the semiconductor supply chain. Chipmakers can expand fabrication capacity only if they can obtain the equipment needed to produce advanced chips. That makes ASML's order visibility a useful indicator of how far customers expect the AI investment cycle to run.
The story also shows that Europe can hold strategic leverage through specialised industrial capability, even when the largest AI platforms are based elsewhere.
The evidence
Sales: €9.3bn to €11.7bn, Q2 to Q3.
Net income: €2.9bn to €5.0bn.
Gross margin: 54.0% to 57.5%.
New lithography systems sold: 86 to 113.
The Jura view
Scarcity can support pricing and long-term visibility, but it does not remove cycle risk. Semiconductor demand can move sharply, while export controls, customer concentration and production bottlenecks can affect both orders and delivery.
Investors should distinguish demand from deliverable capacity. A full order book is valuable only if the company can expand production without weakening quality, margins or returns on the additional capital.
Chart
ASML's quarter and the forward order signal
A step-up in reported performance, set against a much longer horizon of customer demand.
€9.3bn
€11.7bn
Sales
€2.9bn
€5.0bn
Net income
86
113
Systems sold
- Q2 2026
- Q3 2026
Gross margin
54.0% → 57.5%
Customers are discussing orders out to 2030. This is customer interest, not booked revenue.
ASML third-quarter 2026 results.
04
US Banks Say the Consumer Is Still Spending for Now
Third-quarter results from major US banks show continued household spending. JPMorgan reported that credit and debit card sales volume rose 10% year on year, while its consumer card net charge-off rate fell to 2.91%. Citigroup's general-purpose card spending rose 13%, and Wells Fargo debit-card spending increased 8%.
JPMorgan reported net income of $15.3bn. Citigroup reported $5.2bn of net income on $23.8bn of revenue. Bank executives nevertheless warned that persistently high interest rates could pressure households if the labour market weakens.
Why it matters
Consumer sentiment and consumer behaviour can diverge. Households may feel cautious while continuing to spend, supported by employment, wages, savings or credit. That distinction matters for businesses exposed to discretionary demand.
Headline spending growth can also hide pressure beneath the surface. Lower-income households may trade down, revolve more credit or reduce larger purchases before aggregate data weakens.
The evidence
JPMorgan card sales volume: +10%.
Citigroup general-purpose card spending: +13%.
Wells Fargo debit-card spending: +8%.
JPMorgan consumer card net charge-off rate: 2.91%.
The Jura view
Revenue growth alone will not show whether consumer demand is healthy. Investors should look at repeat purchasing, promotional activity, customer acquisition costs and payment behaviour.
The more durable consumer models will know which customers are spending from income and which are relying on credit. That becomes important if rates remain high or employment softens.
Chart
Spending remains positive while credit losses ease
Year-on-year card spending growth at three large US banks. Each bank reports a slightly different measure.
+10%
JPMorgan
Credit and debit card sales volume
+13%
Citigroup
General-purpose card spending
+8%
Wells Fargo
Debit-card spending
JPMorgan card net charge-off rate
A different measure: credit losses, which fell. Ring scaled to 10%.
JPMorgan SEC filing; Citigroup, Wells Fargo third-quarter results, via Axios.
05
Nvidia's China Lead Has Narrowed to Six Percentage Points
Nvidia held 34% of China's data-centre AI-chip market in the first half of 2026, while Huawei reached 28%, according to IDC data reported by Reuters. Nvidia shipped 678,000 accelerators, down 44% year on year. Huawei shipped 572,000, up from just over 300,000 a year earlier.
Other domestic suppliers also gained share, including Alibaba's T-Head, Cambricon, Kunlunxin and Hygon. US export controls have restricted the products Nvidia can sell into China, while Chinese customers have increased their use of locally designed chips.
Why it matters
The data shows how regulation can alter competitive position. A global leader can retain superior technology and still lose share when access is constrained and local alternatives improve.
The resulting market may develop its own hardware, software tools and customer relationships. Once those systems are established, removing a restriction does not guarantee that demand returns to the former supplier.
The evidence
Nvidia: 34% share, 678,000 shipments, down 44%.
Huawei: 28% share, 572,000 shipments, up from just over 300,000.
T-Head 7%, Cambricon 5%, Kunlunxin 4%, Hygon 3%.
The Jura view
Investors often treat market leadership as a product question. In strategic sectors, it is also a question of access, standards, switching costs and policy.
Regulation can create commercial space for local competitors, and temporary barriers can become lasting changes in customer behaviour. Diligence should test how much of a company's advantage depends on continued access to a particular market.
Chart
China's AI-chip market becomes more competitive
Share of China's data-centre AI-chip market, first half of 2026.
Nvidia
34%
678,000 shipments, down 44% year on year
Huawei
28%
572,000 shipments, up from just over 300,000
T-Head
7%
Cambricon
5%
Kunlunxin
4%
Hygon
3%
A six-point gap between Nvidia and Huawei in the first half of 2026.
IDC data reported by Reuters.
In Focus: Getty Images Shows What Happens When Disruption Meets Debt
Getty Images has agreed a restructuring supported by its major financial stakeholders. The Getty family and Koch Equity Development will provide up to $533m of new equity, while holders representing 83.5% of unsecured bonds have agreed to retire $270m of senior unsecured notes. Around 89% of secured lenders and all revolving-credit lenders support reduced interest obligations and extended maturities.
The process is expected to leave Getty Images privately held. It follows the collapse of its proposed $3.7bn combination with Shutterstock after UK regulatory intervention.
The Jura View. A useful operating asset can survive while the claims around it change. In a restructuring, enterprise value alone does not determine investor outcomes. Priority, collateral, maturity and the willingness to provide new money determine who keeps exposure and on what terms.
Getty also shows how technology risk and financing risk interact. A company can have a recognised brand and valuable content while still needing a balance sheet suited to faster change in its market.
Chart
Getty Images capital structure reset
Where new money enters and which claims change. Not a simple debt write-off.
Before
- Existing equity
- Senior unsecured notes
- Secured debt and revolver at prior terms
After
- Up to $533m new equity from Getty family affiliates and Koch Equity Development
- $270m of unsecured notes retired, about $170.2m aggregate cash recovery
- Secured debt with lower interest and extended maturities
- Existing equity cancelled; new equity investors own the company, subject to management incentive dilution
Operations
Employees, customers and suppliers expected to continue in the ordinary course
Getty Images SEC filing.
Closing Perspective
This week's stories look different on the surface, but each points to the support beneath growth.
AI investment needs finance and specialised equipment. Consumer demand depends on household income and credit. Market leadership depends on access as well as technology. Valuable operating businesses still need capital structures that can withstand change. UK investors must distinguish confirmed tax rules from political debate.
The opportunity is not simply to find the fastest-growing market. It is to identify the assets, contracts and financing structures that allow growth to continue when one of its supports becomes more expensive or less certain.
This week in numbers
3.1%
IMF forecast for global growth in 2026.
Nearly $500bn
Estimated AI-related debt issued in 2026.
€11.7bn
ASML third-quarter sales.
34% vs 28%
Nvidia and Huawei shares of China's data-centre AI-chip market.
Around £34,000
Estimated average inheritance-tax increase among estates affected by the 2027 pension change.
Up to $533m
New equity committed to the Getty Images restructuring.
Looking ahead
15 October 2026
UK monthly GDP. The August estimate will provide a fresh read on domestic momentum. See the ONS release page.
15 October 2026
TSMC third-quarter results. Revenue, margin and capital-spending guidance will help test the strength of the semiconductor investment cycle.
28 October 2026
UK Budget. Investors will watch the balance between tax, spending and borrowing, particularly where policy affects business owners, estates and private capital.
Until next week.
The Jura Capital Team